This paper is pretty impressive. It documents the relationship between BMI at age 17 and the chances of coronary heart disease over the next twenty years or so. Plenty of studies have attempted that but in this one (a) height and weight were measured, not self report and (b) the coronary disease was angiography-proven, stenosis of more than 50% in at least one coronary artery. And in case you are worrying that they may have missed one or two cases, (c) every participant had regular treadmill stress tests after their 35th birthday.
You don't get all that, of course, in an ordinary normal population of volunteers - this data was gathered from members of the Israeli Defence Force.
The conclusion was that even slight overweight at age 17 predicted trouble in the coronary arteries in early middle age. The authors make the point that this occurred at a level of BMI considered 'normal'. One of the functions of epidemiology is to give us the full picture of a disease, and as so often happens what we regard as 'normal' is not necessarily healthy.
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